NEW DELHI: India’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by 11.4 per cent to hit USD 114.4 billion during the 

July-September quarter of the current financial year, 

Export-Import Bank of India said in its quarterly data.

However, Export-Import Bank of India said that the rise in exports during the second quarter of FY23 could be shadowed by softening global commodity prices. Slowdown in major trade partners, inflationary pressures and tight monetary policies around the world could also offset the exports gain, as per the Export-Import Bank of India data.

India’s merchandise exports fell marginally to $33 billion in August 2022 as compared to $33.38 billion recorded in the same month last year.

In fact, the year-on-year growth for merchandise exports will slow to 11.4% in Q2, as compared to 25% in the first quarter, according to the forecast by Export-Import Bank of India.

“India’s exports could be shadowed by softening global commodity prices, possible slowdown in major trade partners, along with inflationary pressures and tight monetary policies around the world, said the press release.

Preliminary trade data released by the Department of Commerce last week showed that outbound shipments from India grew at the slowest pace in nine months at $33 billion in August, down 1% compared to past year.

Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 91.7 bn during the second quarter, growing at 5.4% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Export-Import Bank of India has an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for the country to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The policy banker for the government releases the forecast during the first weeks of June, September, December and March for the corresponding quarters.

ELI gauges the outlook for Country’s exports. It is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and other non-oil exports on a quarterly basis based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the Country.