NEW DELHI : The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for the year 2023-24 at 6.3 per cent - with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6.0 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively.

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 2.7 per cent for 2023-24. This marks a moderation vis-à-vis growth of about 4.0 per cent reported in the year 2022-23. The El Nino effect has had an impact on the spatial distribution of rainfall this monsoon season. Industry and services sector, on the other hand, are anticipated to grow by 5.6 per cent and 7.3 per cent respectively in the current fiscal year.

The present round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of September 2023 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The economists were requested to share their forecast for key macro-economic variables for the year 2023-24 and for Q2 (July-September) FY24 and Q3 (October-December) FY24.

Persisting headwinds on account of geopolitical stress, slowing growth in China, lagged impact of monetary tightening and below normal monsoons pose as downside risks to growth. According to the survey results, median GDP growth is estimated to slowdown to 6.1 per cent and 6.0 per cent in Q2 2023-24 and Q3 2023-24 respectively – after posting a four-quarter high growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1 2023-24.

Further, the median forecast for CPI based inflation has been put at 5.5 per cent for 2023-24, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively.