TOKYO: On the week following the six month anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) announcement of COVID19 as a global pandemic, the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) has published a comprehensive report summarising all findings from its twelve surveys of global ports since early April, including its most recent survey to ports in week 36. Key findings are as follows - 

 

Recovery in container vessel calls coupled with increased utilization in storage and warehouse capacity 

 

Some 56% of ports are now reporting similar numbers of container vessel arrivals comparable to the same period last year, which is the highest percentage to date. With generalized lockdowns now limited, the return of vessels and the lower numbers of blank sailings continue, yet these happen at a slower pace. About 16% of the respondents even point to increased vessel activity.

 

By comparison, the share of ports reporting that the number of calls by for other cargo vessel types is rather stable compared to a normal situation fluctuating between 46 and 59%, with the lowest shares recorded in weeks 18 to 21 and in week 36. In the latter week however, about 14% of ports reported a rise of more than 5% in other cargo vessel activity compared to last year, the highest figure since the start of the Barometer.

 

The cruise/passenger market remains the most affected by the COVID-19 contagion, although the results since week 27 show some improvement. In week 36, 45% of respondents indicate that passenger vessel calls are down more than 50%, in many cases even down more than 90%. In the period from week 20 to week 25 this figure was 61-62% while in weeks 15 to 18 this figure amounted to two thirds of respondents with a peak of 76% in week 19.

 

The survey results for week 36 show the COVID19 crisis has resulted in 20% of ports reporting an increase in utilization of warehousing and distribution facilities for foodstuffs and medical supplies, a doubling of the figure compared to week 29. From week 19 to week 27 (six survey weeks in a row), more ports faced underutilization than higher utilization levels for consumer goods. The figures reached a balance in week 29 (10% each), with week 36 tilting the balance again towards increased usage of facilities.

 

Co-author Professor Theo Notteboom commented : “In the current conditions and given the sharp decline in the numbers of blank sailings, an increasing number of ports are heading to almost similar numbers of calls compared to the same period the year before. At the same time, maritime trade volumes have also started to increase, as several economies, or major parts of them, have returned to operations and increased number of transactions.”

 

Investments impacted as projects are delayed or postponed 

The week 36 survey also included a new question : “Please indicate what situation is most applicable to the majority of planned infrastructure investments in your port since the COVID-19 outbreak.”

69% of the surveyed ports reported that the majority of their investment plans have been delayed in some way or even amended. 41% of the reporting ports informed that the delays in investment have been, at least for the moment, minor. Due to the changing conditions, major investment delays are occurring in 19% of the ports. A few ports (4%) have decided to shelve or cancel existing investment plans, while 3% of respondents have already decided to replace specific investments by other ones. Notably, three of the surveyed ports reported that given the emerging conditions they decided to accelerate their existing investment plans and execute them faster than initially scheduled.

 

Co-author Professor Thanos Pallis commented : “In some cases existing delays are happening due to difficulties in obtaining authorization by regional, federal, and/or national administrations. In other cases they are happening due to delays by third party contractors, most likely attributable in part to availability of workers affected by the COVID-19 situation. However, in some ports the observed delays seem to be part of longer-term adjustments with ports re-assessing investments once market conditions will allow for a clearer view of the total impact of COVID-19 on social aspects and market demand.”

 

Projects already commenced during the pre-COVID-19 period continue as planned, but new investments are on hold; some ports reported that they have already decided to postpone scheduled investments for one year. Plans for investments in infrastructure for the cruise industry are questioned more than others, with discussions on-going. Other ports stated that investments in new cruise terminals have been shelved for the time being, with port authorities waiting to know more about the cruise development prospects first before reassessing their potential. All these factors make the case for further monitoring the evolution of the investment plans of ports.

 

Looking at the way forward – a global tracking mechanism to monitor trends, mitigate risks, alleviate impacts and build resilience

 

The Barometer was developed with the aim to inform and assess the pandemic’s impacts. With the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in various parts of the world, and given the sustaining interest of ports and the broader maritime community on the impact of COVID-19, the IAPH-WPSP Task Force on COVID-19 has decided to continue the Barometer exercise on a monthly basis. In the coming months, the Barometer will continue to monitor short-term impacts on vessel calls, storage and distribution activities, staff availability and hinterland transport. In addition, new survey questions will be considered in view of assessing longer term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on global ports. The question on port infrastructure investments, which was added in week 36, exemplifies the widening of the survey scope to include also long-term impacts. Professors Pallis and Notteboom now ambitiously aim to work with international institutions and partners across the global supply chain spectrum to develop a global tracking mechanism for the Barometer capable of quantifying port risk and resilience. This is the third crisis this century following 09/11 and the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008. Ports will need to accelerate digitalization, redouble their efforts to decarbonize and spur innovation if their aim is to survive and prosper in the twenty first century.”