PARIS: Trade conflict, weak business investment and persistent political uncertainty are weighing on the world economy and raising the risk of long-term stagnation, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
World GDP growth is expected to be 2.9% this year - its lowest annual rate since the financial crisis - and remain at 2.9%-3.0% in 2020 and 2021. Global GDP expanded 3.5% in 2018.
Bold action is needed to address both the high levels of uncertainty facing businesses as well as the fundamental changes taking place in the global economy. Policy-making must lead the transition to cleaner energy and to an increasingly digital world. Governments must work together urgently to boost investment and establish fair international rules on taxation and trade.
Presenting the Outlook in Paris OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “It would be a mistake to consider these changes as temporary factors that can be addressed with monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural. Without coordination for trade and global taxation, clear policy directions for the energy transition, uncertainty will continue to loom large and damage growth prospects.”
The slowdown involves advanced and emerging-market economies alike although its severity varies according to the importance of trade in individual countries. Growth in the US is forecast to slow to 2% in 2020 and 2021. In the euro area and Japan, growth is expected at around 1% while the deceleration in China’s expansion is set to reach 5.5% in 2021, compared with 6.6% last year.
